July 23, 2007 2:06 PM

Republicans Squandering Their Opportunity In Kentucky

It wasn't long ago that Republicans dominated the nation's governorships. In 2000, Republicans held the Governor's mansion in 31 states, compared to just 17 for Democrats (Independents held two). Less than seven years later, Democrats now hold a 28 to 22 lead, with those states accounting for 295 electoral votes (up from 207 before the election). And according to the latest Rothenberg Political Report, Democrats are poised to hold as many as 30 seats by the end of next year.

While Republican governors in Democratic states have become an endangered species, the same cannot be said for Democratic governors in red states where they hold the office in the less-friendly confines of Wyoming, Kansas, Oklahoma, Montana, North Carolina and Virginia, just to name a few.

Nowhere is this trend more evident than in Kentucky, a state which President Bush won by a hefty 60-40 margin in 2004, and where Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R) appears nearly out of oxygen, after roaring into office in 2003 as the first Republican governor in 32 years. Kentucky is one of just three states to hold gubernatorial elections this year (along with Louisiana and Mississippi).

Following two years of near-constant scandal and a grand jury investigation that forced him to preemptively pardon his entire administration (whether or not they were indicted), invoke his own 5th Amendment rights instead of testifying, getting himself indicted on political corruption charges, and then having his own lieutenant governor bolt from the ticket and support his primary challenger...it's not so good to be red in the Bluegrass State right now, especially for Ernie Fletcher.

But to appreciate the depth of Fletcher's electability problem, you need not look any further at any public polling having to do with Fletcher in the past few months -- regardless of whether the poll is testing his job performance or a general election matchup against former Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear (D):

--Jul 16, Survey USA: Fletcher 36% (Beshear 59%)
--Jul 16, Survey USA, job approval: Fletcher 39%
--Jul 9, Insider Advantage: Fletcher 38% (Beshear 41%)
--Jun 1, Survey USA, job approval: Fletcher 39%
--May 25, Rasmussen: Fletcher 35% (Beshear 51%)
--May 24, Survey USA: Fletcher 34% (Beshear 62%)
--May 14, Survey USA, job approval: Fletcher 38%
--Apr 16, Survey USA job approval: Fletcher 36%

As is abundantly clear, Fletcher can't get beyond his most hard-core base on any measurement. Be it a straight-up job approval, or a general election match-up, every poll is showing that more than 60% of Kentucky voters want nothing to do with Fletcher on any level. Amazingly, Fletcher has not cracked 40% job approval in any of the past 30 Survey USA monthly polls. (I'm told that Beshear's internal polling shows him blasting Fletcher by a 55-35 margin, which is very consistent with the numbers above.)

On Friday, Pollster.com offered a similar assessment of Fletcher's grave problem, as it related to just the general election polling:

The most striking thing to me in the Kentucky results is the relative consistency in support for Fletcher across all four polls. Fletcher's support varies within a four point range (34% to 38%), while support for Beshear varies widely (from 41% to 62%). That pattern is not unusual in a race involving a well known incumbent, particularly when the incumbent is embattled by various scandals that have lowered his job performance rating to just 39% of adults. Attitudes about the incumbent typically drive voter preference at this stage of the race, lesser known challengers typically gain support as the campaign progresses.

Collectively, these results suggest trouble ahead for Governor Fletcher unless he can convince a big chunk of Kentucky voters to either reconsider his performance as governor or rule out Steve Beshear as a credible alternative.

Compounding Fletcher's already bad situation is the clear drop-off of Republican Party registration among new Kentucky voters since the 2004 election. While Kentucky voters have exhibited a clear shift to the Republican column on Election Day over the past decade, Democrats continue to hold a 3 to 2 registration advantage, and as was the case in a number of states during the 2006 elections (particularly in the Rocky Mountain West), many of those Republican-voting-Democrats are coming home, once again.

Keep a close eye on what is shaping-up to be the Blowout in the Bluegrass this November.

--Mark Nickolas